Game of the Year: The frontrunners, dark horses, and challengers to come

This year marks the 10th anniversary of The Game Awards, and in that time Geoff Keighley’s annual event has established itself quite firmly as the leading awards ceremony for the game industry — the Oscars of gaming. It remains promotionally overstuffed to the point that it’s still arguably better known for trailers than awards, but that is changing. And although its winners tend to be pretty conservative, they are broadly representative of the critical consensus. Its voting body is composed of a wide range of international games media, so the chances are, your favorite publications’ and critics’ picks feed into The Game Awards. (Polygon’s do.)

The top prize of the night is, of course, Game of the Year. There is more calculus involved with divining a year’s potential GOTY winner than you might think: AAA titles fare well, but not indie games; there’s a strong correlation with games that score very well (usually over 90) on Metacritic; there’s an equally strong bias toward single-player games, and against multiplayer. And even though the public vote only counts toward 10% of the final tally (the other 90% is decided by the media voting jury), games with strong popular support do tend to do well in GOTY, too. There’s even more to it than that, as we detail in our deeper investigation of what makes a Game of the Year at The Game Awards.

So who are the true contenders in 2024? After crunching numbers and taking temperatures, we’ve formed a picture of this year’s likely nominees (there are six) and ranked them. The catch is that we’re only including games released to date (with one exception that’s very close to release). Unlike in the film industry, where most titles are known quantities by the time festival season rolls around in early September, you never really know what kind of impact a video game will have — or how good it will be — until it’s out. We will update these rankings as games come out. Things will likely move very fast over the coming weeks as big games are released and the voting deadline gets closer. You can check out the likely contenders in the “Upcoming” section below.

GOTY frontrunners

1. Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth

Why it could win: There’s no doubt about which game is in pole position for Game of the Year 2024. In a sense, Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth is currently running in a field of one. As a big production from a famous series in a favored genre, with strong story and performance elements and a 90-plus Metacritic rating, it has no peer this year (yet). The game also benefits from rabid fan support in the PlayStation community (it’s a PS5 exclusive), and it won Most Anticipated in 2023. 

Weaknesses: Sales were slightly underwhelming, according to publisher Square Enix itself, and the critical consensus around it is not quite as unanimous as that 92 Metascore would suggest.

2. Astro Bot

Why it could win: With a 94 Metascore at time of writing, Team Asobi’s delightful platform game enjoys the strongest critical consensus of any game this year (and rightly so), unless you count Elden Ring’s Shadow of the Erdtree expansion, which isn’t eligible for The Game Awards’ Game of the Year award. It’s also technically dazzling, which is historically a strong plus in GOTY consideration.

Weaknesses: Games nominated in the Family category, as Astro Bot surely will be, very rarely break through in the main competition, unless they’re also strong in the Narrative category — which Astro Bot, for all its charms, is not.

3. The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom

Why it could win: Echoes of Wisdom is an inventive reframing of a beloved series from perhaps the most reliable developer in the business, Nintendo. Although unreleased at time of writing, Echoes of Wisdom is close enough that we know it will be great, and it’s innovative enough within the Zelda formula to wow critics. Pretty much a lock for a nomination, even at this early stage.

Weaknesses: Its old-school, cutesy, all-ages presentation will count against it. Nintendo has only won once before, for the more conventionally presented The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild; otherwise, its games get nominated, and often win the Family category, but underperform in GOTY.

4. Animal Well

Why it could win: The indie game with the strongest chance of breaking through to the main GOTY category at this year’s Game Awards so far is Animal Well: a critically acclaimed (91 Metascore) puzzle adventure that’s really strong on visuals and atmosphere. While it’s not exactly story-heavy, it does have a mysterious mythology and meta-narrative to explore. Another plus: It’s published by Bigmode, the new label led by popular YouTuber Dunkey, giving it a minor fame boost.

Weaknesses: It’s not exactly accessible, and an indie game has yet to win Game of the Year.

5. Black Myth: Wukong

Why it could win: This Chinese action-adventure is a big technical showpiece in a favored genre, and it seems to have strong popular support: In GOTY discussions online, it is one of the two most-mentioned games, alongside FF7 Rebirth. Even though the public vote only counts for 10% of the final vote, these vocal fans might be just enough to push it into the top six.

Weaknesses: With an 81 Metascore, Black Myth: Wukong is at the lower end of critical consensus when it comes to securing a nomination for Game of the Year. And while it’s a massive seller, most of its audience seems to be in China, which only has a small presence on the visible voting jury. Developer Game Science is politically controversial, which might deter some voters, too.

6. Like a Dragon: Infinite Wealth

Why it could win: Not long ago, it would have been ridiculous to suggest a game in the cultish Like a Dragon/Yakuza series could get a GOTY nomination. But the series’ steady growth in popularity continues, and critics loved the sprawling, eclectic Infinite Wealth (it has an 89 Metascore); there’s an uncomplicated, upbeat sentiment around it, which is more than you can say for some of the other frontrunners. Amazon’s forthcoming Like a Dragon: Yakuza TV series might give it a bump.

Weaknesses: Its biggest handicap is that it was released in January, though it has stayed in the conversation due to a generally soft slate in 2024. It remains relatively niche and is liable to be pushed out by new fall releases.

Dark horses

What’s bubbling under the top six? Here are a few other games with an outside chance at a nomination, but that have the odds stacked against them.

Dragon’s Dogma 2: A major open-world role-playing game with an 86 Metascore, Dragon’s Dogma 2 should be in a good position to compete for a nomination. But it’s systems-led rather than story-led and its uncompromising design is divisive with players. “Divisive” does not win GOTY.

Helldivers 2: The sensation of the first half of 2024, Helldivers 2 was an unexpectedly massive viral hit that dominated the conversation for several months. Critics liked it, too. But it’s a pure multiplayer title, and such games almost never get nominated, and certainly never win.

Balatro: In terms of indie darlings, Balatro is right up there with Animal Well, with a 90 Metascore. It’s also more widely and consistently played — not only is it popular, but the people who like it are probably still playing it, and unlikely to stop before voting. But it’s a purely systemic card game with zero narrative elements. It would be a major turnaround for The Game Awards to recognize it in the GOTY category.

The Last of Us Part 2 Remastered: Remakes and remasters are eligible for GOTY, but they rarely break through. The notable exception is Resident Evil 4, which scored a nomination in 2023. But that was a much more adventurous remake than this 1:1 remaster, and in any case, the original game won the same category only four years ago.

Hades 2: Hades was a rare GOTY nominee from the Indie and Action categories in 2020, and so beloved that many feel it was robbed by The Last of Us Part 2. Its sequel is technically eligible, despite being an early access game. But the jury is likely to hold it back for consideration until its official “1.0” release, as they did with the first game.

Upcoming

Here are the games we think have a shot at nomination that have yet to be released. (Note: Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, which arrives on Dec. 6, is ineligible due to TGAs’ Nov. 17 cutoff for new releases. It will be eligible for The Game Awards 2025.)

Dragon Age: The Veilguard: This is a strongly narrative-led RPG, stuffed with fan-favorite characters and performances, in a series that has won before (Dragon Age: Inquisition won the first GOTY award in 2014). The Veilguard feels like a lock for a nomination — if it’s good enough, that is.

STALKER 2: Heart of Chornobyl: Shooters aren’t often recognized in the GOTY category, but one with a good story both inside the game and outside it — STALKER 2’s developer is Ukrainian, which guarantees warm sentiment toward it — has a good chance if it reviews well.

Metaphor: ReFantazio: The Persona series, similarly to Like a Dragon/Yakuza, has grown hugely in stature in recent years, and elevated developer Atlus to the top flight. There’s serious buzz building about the studio’s latest game.

The Plucky Squire: This indie about a storybook hero who is expelled from the pages of his book to explore the three-dimensional world around it has just the kind of charming premise that goes over well at The Game Awards.

Assassin’s Creed Shadows: Ubisoft’s latest historical epic has relatively little competition in the “giant open-world blockbuster” stakes this year, and could score a nomination if critics feel it does enough to refresh the series.

Life Is Strange: Double Exposure: This series is strong in narrative and performance, which always plays well at The Game Awards, although critics have been cooler on Life Is Strange since original developer Don’t Nod left.

Silent Hill 2 and Metal Gear Solid Delta: These two remakes of classic games might sneak a nomination if it’s felt that their takes on the originals are bold enough.

Call of Duty: Black Ops 6: Probably the biggest game of the year, but an iterative, annual series like Call of Duty will have to do something really special to get the jury’s attention.